Latin America

In an article released last week by Spiegel International, evidence of FARC activities have been discovered after the killing of one of its leaders in Ecuador last month. The article goes into detail on what information was discovered. Information about the state of Ingrid Betancourt was detailed in the files. What most expected, is that she is quite ill and is putting up a strong front against her kidnappers. Another piece of valuable information is that the FARC is also in possession of 30 kilos of Uranium, not suitable for making bombs but useful in the production of armor piercing rounds which can cut through most modern tanks and APC’s possessed by the Colombian military.

What was most striking about the recent information is the evidence found linking Hugo Chavez with the FARC. Beyond mere sympathy for their cause, the documentation lists funds and weapons from Chavez’s Venezuela going to FARC rebels in Colombia. Despite threats by Chavez against Colombia a few weeks prior, it is in fact Chavez who is supplying arms against Colombia via the FARC according to Spiegel International. Details of Chavez’s assistance to the FARC includes $300 million in aid to the FARC as well as arms from the Venezuelan military and even a suggestion of giving the FARC shares from Venezuela’s oil revenues. Moreover, suspicions of Venezuela’s cooperation in the drug trade have been a constant concern of the Colombian government. The FARC makes most of its revenue from narcotics, but getting the drugs to Europe and the US is said to be done in some part through Venezuelan airports. An estimated 30% of the narcotics are said to go through Venezuela to outside markets according to Colombian drug authorities. A captured narcotics boss even referred to Venezuela saying “Venezuela is the drug trafficking mecca” in a statement made after his arrest.

With the release of this evidence to the international community is will be interesting to see how much the EU and US are willing to support a possible hot conflict in South America. With the War on Terror siphoning resources, a US election which is increasingly anti-trade and protectionist and years of ignoring foreign policy issues in the Andean region by most countries, Colombia has had little effective aid in the last 8 years except from Sarkozy of France. Evidence of the possible direction of the next US President may have taken its form in the recent discussion of opening a Free Trade Agreement with Colombia. The current debate between President Bush and the Democrats in Congress concerns threats in Colombia against local labour leaders. A debate to suspend the FTA has strong support in reaction to Colombia’s record of violence against local labour leaders, according to Human Rights Watch. Alternatively, the debate to increase trade has been linked with the current battle against the FARC in Colombia by addressing poverty in the country through helping grow the Colombian economy and eliminate the need for a paramilitary state and the need for drug money to support the underground markets in Colombia. The export of flowers and coffee and other agricultural products, grown on massive scale in Colombia may have the effect of displacing the need for illegal crops and create new markets for Colombia’s legal commodities. To date, Bush is pushing to pass the FTA through despite opposition. Trade might become the major election issue indeed, with Clinton gaining a lifeline from much of the debate against Obama who has taken a recent hit due to comments made about small town Americans. And it continues on and on…

An April 17th article by the Economist.com challenges the issues discussed above. The Economist suggests that for the last 6 years of Uribe’s Presidency, he has done everything a US ally who is fighting a War on Terror should do, and that is to win. His successes in driving the FARC from Bogota towards the small grottos in Colombia’s jungles and his support for the US Plan Colombia has made Uribe a poster child for US support abroad. With challenges due to human rights issues in the US Congress and the likely failure of a future FTA, pressure on Uribe may be limited as temporary trade measures currently in place can be extended towards Colombia. The real effect of US pressure as suggested by The Economist may have little weight as the security situation in Colombia, as support by most of the population in Colombia, takes precedent over any politics abroad. A possible end to the FARC and Uribe’s hand in those action will prove to reward Uribe in a Colombia free of major internal threats and strong enough to resist pressures from Washington. With threats from its neighbours as well, Uribe will likely get as much support as he needs if Colombia is threatened with any coercive actions which may help the FARC or the drug trade in Colombia originating from a foreign power. The US will likely be seen as abandoning its allies if it lets Colombia be attacked from abroad. It will be a likely paradox for the next President, if they give aid for security reason, but will not allow trade and development in the process. US Foreign Policy may seek to aid in a success in Colombia, as failures in Iraq and possibly Afghanistan may be the only legacy of US Foreign Policy for the next decade.

The real problem may be a current of anti-trade in the upcoming US election. While Colombia does have issues with its labour leaders, countries like Mexico and even Canada have been placed in the penalty box in Clinton’s speeches towards the electorate in Pennsylvania in order to gain more votes by poking at trade and immigration issues with its neighbours amidst the growing concern over trade with China. Depending on who becomes the next US president, it is certain that trade with any country in the Americas will be threatened if it will gain more votes for their candidate. Unfortunately reality and politics may never meet in that dialogue and US relations with its neighbours and assistance to Colombia will continue to be a problem for another 4 years of the American Presidency. The next vote will likely have as great an effect on America’s neighbours as it does on Americans themselves. The most interesting result may be to what degree will the next President placate China while placing economic and security concerns on its friendly neighbours to the north and to the south. What remains to be true is that a conflict in South America may mirror the next decade of international politics, which unfortunately may be as obtuse as the last eight years of ineffective foreign policy towards Colombia and Venezuela.

Few people have attracted so much attention in France and in Colombia as Ingrid Betancourt. The daughter of a Colombian diplomat and a former Miss Colombia, Ingrid grew up in France studying at Sciences Po and eventually made her way to Colombia in support of a movement that supported anti-drug trafficking and anti-corruption policies. With the assassination of anti-drug presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galan, Ingrid threw her own hat into the political ring, eventually becoming a Senator of Colombia in 1998. In 2002, Ingrid began to run to become Colombia’s anti-drug president. On an unescorted trip in February 2002 to help calm tensions and meet with the FARC, the group kidnapped her in the demilitarized zone and added her name to hundreds of kidnap victims claimed by the FARC in Colombia’s persistent national trauma. Ingrid was a hero to many in France and Colombia, but in 2002 many thought Ingrid’s fate would be one of a martyr.

President Sarkozy of France challenged the fate of Ingrid Betancourt this week. The French Presidential Falcon 900 was sent to French Guyana in an effort to get medical attention and a possible release of Mme Betancourt in an effort by Mr. Sarkozy to keep his campaign promise to free Ingrid Betancourt despite years of failures by past French and Colombian attempts. Colombia aided in the gesture by calling a temporary ceasefire with the FARC while French officials and medical personnel sought to find and treat Ingrid who is said to be gravely ill while in captivity.

Tensions in finding Mme Betancourt are a serious concern. With the recent successes by the Colombian intelligence service in helping kill one of the top FARC leaders and possible reactions to President Uribe pressing the attack, all sides are extremely nervous and any political maneuvering by Colombia, France or perhaps Venezuela will likely create an unwelcome negative response by the FARC and injure Ingrid even further. With Ingrid Betancourt having much clout, and past attempts by the FARC to kill Mr. Uribe himself, it is understandable why the momentum of Colombia’s recent strikes against the FARC would justify a further push to end their existence in Colombia. Ingrid Betancourt as a symbol against the FARC is at the same time suffering from her own importance as France and Colombia’s most beloved daughter is also FARC’s most valuable victim of terrorism in Colombia. In the end, if Ingrid dies in FARC hands it will most likely push Uribe further to attack the FARC whenever possible and consolidate his opposition in Colombia into supporting any military efforts against the FARC. The only option for the FARC to keep their prized kidnap victim might be that of allowing medical attention for Ingrid, a small success for Sarkozy, Uribe and most importantly Mme Betancourt. We wait to see what will come from France’s gesture and Sarko’s Falcon 900.

France 2 Video en Francais: Falcon 900 et Ingrid Betancourt. Voyez Ici.

France 24 Video in English: Who is Ingrid Betancourt. See here. 

After much anger, resentment and accusations by Colombian officials and Hugo Chavez, a Cold Peace has been declared between officials from Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador. After an attack on FARC rebels by Colombia that took place inside Ecuador’s border, a negative reaction by Ecuador’s President and the movement of troops and saber rattling by Chavez of Venezuela could have lead to an open war between the South American neighbors. Even the country of Nicaragua set to oppose Uribe and Colombia, but in the end disgruntled hand shakes and an official apology by Colombia towards Ecuador allowed everyone to maintain stability on the borders. The only real losses were to the FARC organization. In the recent bout of political maneuvering, the FARC for the first time lost one of its top leaders, Raul Reyes based on proper intelligence work and efforts by Colombia and Uribe. Two days later, another one of FARC’s top officials was assassinated by his own bodyguard. Motivations for this were partially due to a $2.6 million reward as well as fatigue and a loss of cohesion in much of the FARC organization. In the end, the FARC soldier defected with his commander’s hand and brought Colombia the knowledge that FARC might be losing its luster of having untouchable leadership and a stable command structure.

In an ISN article last week called Colombia: Unintended Consequences, journalist Sam Logan discusses the outcome of the latest Andean skirmish after the attack on the FARC camp by the Colombian Armed Forces. The view, as discussed by Logan is that there were no obvious winners or losers in the latest political drama, but that the end of the situation showed that the FARC may have lost its image of invincibility due to the death of one of its top seven leaders and tacticians. This rolling success was only complemented by the death of a second FARC mid-level leader, showing to everyone that FARC’s discipline and command and control of its 16,000 plus soldiers did not stop one of its other leaders from losing his hand and his life to his own bodyguard. Logan explains that not only luck aided Colombia in creating FARC’s problems, but new intelligence helped produce FARC’s recent troubles. Colombia has recently adjusted its intelligence gathering system to disseminate information in a more productive manner. This may have contributed a great deal in finding Reyes, as well as allowed Colombian forces to press the attack on the FARC.

The damage to FARC’s reputation will do nothing more than help Uribe gain more support in Colombia’s own “War on Terror”. Political support and nationalism will likely remain high for Uribe, who himself was attacked by the FARC before taking office. Chavez has also saved face among his people, but may not be willing to proclaim another conflict so easily as the FARC’s unintended losses and his own political career depend on the will of the Venezuelan people to support an attack on its neighbor. With half of the country supporting Chavez and the other half opposed, support for FARC kidnappings, attacks on Colombia and spilling blood for those causes may not put Venezuela’s self proclaimed Caesar in a position to hold power in the future.

The clear losers of the whole situation are those kidnapped victims held by the FARC to date. While Chavez did aid in getting some hostages released, the use of kidnapping against Colombians and others is an effective torture on society in Colombia. Many seek to blame aggressive policies in maintaining captives like Ingrid Betancourt in FARC hands and put pressure on Uribe to negotiate with the FARC to gain her release. It is unlikely this debate will end with a possible aggressive push against a weakened FARC in the near future.

Messages of distrust between the Colombian Government and Hugo Chavez were considered no more than showboating after Hugo Chavez made headway in getting two Colombian citizens released, followed by open support for the rights of the kidnappers to be represented as a legitimate political party. Anger and frustration in Colombia which has been literally torn apart by the FARC and other rebel groups over the last 30 years put Chavez on the hit list of Colombians inside their own country and those in the Colombian Diaspora who often left their places of birth due to problems derived from the conflict in Colombia. Upon the death of Raul Reyes, one of the FARC leaders killed in a camp in Ecuador, a diplomatic scrum has begun between Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. Ecuador is accusing Colombia of intentional violations of their territory with the recent attack. Colombia did apologize, yet made clear their claim today of support by the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan Governments for the FARC and Colombia’s right to protect its own sovereign territory from terrorist attacks. The last piece of the drama comes with Hugo Chavez. By placing a number of heavily armed troops on its border to add flames to his theory that Colombia wishes to attack its neighbor and himself personally, an Andean War has perhaps taken its first steps. Currently, Ecuador and Colombia have removed their diplomats from each other’s embassies and have no diplomatic communication beyond Chavez’s saber rattling, or more specifically the sound of marching and the screeching of tanks surrounding the borders of Colombia on either end.

Conflict in South America has always been considered much as a Cold War between neighbors who never took actions beyond minor skirmishes. In the era of South American military governments in the 60s and 70s, many disputes over territory were the catalyst for countries like Argentina, Chile, Brazil and most everyone else purchasing some of the most advanced equipment, Exocet missiles and even in the case of Brazil, an old aircraft carrier to keep their neighbors at bay in the event of a hot conflict. Ironically, the heaviest conflict was in the early 80’s between the UK and Argentina when local unrest and economic tensions lead General Galtieri of Argentina’s military government to divert attention away from local issues by attacking a disputed territory known as the Maldives Islands/Falkland Islands. Galtieri’s strategy of conquest did nothing more than to end his own career and reduce the last of his support in Argentina to nil and deal one of the final blows to the era of South America’s military dictatorships.

In a classic sense the political fate of Chavez may come with his verbal, and now physical adoption of the dispute between Colombia and Ecuador. Along with verbal accusations of Colombia’s intention to murder him and his recent mobilsation of his armed forces, Venezuela has been investing in some very advanced and high tech weapons from the Russian army since the Presidency of Chavez began. In addition to Chavez’s rearming of Venezuela, his support has also started to wane with some Venezuelan groups as seen in his loss in a referendum to increase his powers under the Venezuelan constitution. Some may see Chavez as taking the strategy of General Galtieri in assuming a conflict, but the will of the Venezuelan people to give their children and blood on behalf of the FARC and Chavez is likely not as strong as Colombia’s wish to turn itself back into one of the most promising countries in the region, free of terror, economic strife and threats from their borders. Support from the US may balance out Colombia’s military capabilities as well, as its Air Force and Army are equipped for conflict with rebels and AK-47’s and not new Venezuelan Sukhoi fighters or armored tanks.

Another territory in the world this week that seems to have similar problems as Colombia are Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Like Colombia, conflicts from outside its border are influencing the lives of its people. As well, parts of the country considered to be under the right of control of the government and people are in constant civil distress. Another similarity is that no one knows how to solve the problems, but everyone can agree that aggressive influences from outside the border will do nothing more than keep Israel, the Palestinian people and Colombians in constant conflict at the behest of a Chavez or similar malcontent in their respective regions. Colombia has always had unfortunate experiences with rebels inside its territory, but hardly anyone can doubt the impatience the Colombian Government will have with a full attack from its neighbors who are seen as supporting rebels and making the Andean region into the next Middle East.

With the retirement of Fidelito, an assessment of the positives and negatives of the Cuban Revolution has taken place in media all around the world. People hate Castro as much as others love him, mainly because while he has injured many and denied basic rights to activists living in Cuba, he has also earned the respect of others by standing up to the United States and living long enough to brag about it. While this perspective dominates most of the globe, in Latin America there is a third dimension to Cuba. Success with specific social policies places Cuba in high regard in the areas of healthcare as well as anti-poverty policies in comparison to the rest of Latin America. Latin America is considered by many as the most unequal region in the world between the wealthy and the poor, accounting on an average 35-45% or higher of the population of the region living below the poverty line. Cuba on the other hand is well known in the region for having a less severe poverty than its neighbors. Cuban doctors and institutions are the regions best in many areas of medicine and medical research. These pros and cons of Castro’s Cuba has created the divided impression of the outcomes of the Cuban Revolution, especially among Latin America’s poor and those who have had to overcome multiple economic crisis in almost every country in the region since the 1960s.

Taking from the pages of Castro’s policies, Hugo Chavez is seeking to expand his support beyond those struggling to live in Venezuela towards others in the region. While Chavez has an amicable working relationship with most of his neighbors, his reputation in recent events has taken a beating. While he did help rescue kidnapped Colombians from the FARC, he also accused Colombia of plotting his assassination. He even angered the King of Spain who is considered a hero by many in a conference in Spain and few months ago, being told to bluntly “shut up” as recorded on Spanish TV by the King. Chavez also lost much of the support of his own people, losing in a referendum to solidify his power in Venezuela in recent weeks.

This week the International Herald Tribune did a story on Venezuela’s “Mission Miracle”, where Chavez for the last four years has sought to put the oil revenues of the recent boom to good use by giving free eye surgery to many who cannot afford in throughout Latin America. In many countries in Latin America the social heath care system leaves much to be desired, with private care and insurance covering many upper classes and leaving those who cannot afford it the inability to get more expensive treatments in the social health system. The issue of access to health care is currently a major one in the US election and could spark an election in Canada, a country which shares many attributes of socialized medicine but often cannot afford to treat many for complicated surgeries in good time as is the issue in Latin America. In the region, the same problems are exacerbated ten-fold with more than half of the population in some countries unable to access newer forms of treatments for the majority of their families. For this reason Chavez’ has gone to bring those in from all over the region to receive eye treatment which is often not as evasive as other surgeries and which allows people to maintain their vision, a vital necessity in a part of the world where people often have only themselves to keep them afloat. Newer and simple eye treatments are very expensive, but it is a simple way to cure the worries of many impoverished and ill patients all over Latin America.

In reality the support for Chavez comes from one hard reality in Latin America. Poverty and populism often comes together in one form or another, and if you seek to deal with issues on poverty you will always get a lot of support, no matter how tactless you many seem in dealing with the international community. While Fidel often had a lot more finesse than Chavez, many leaders in the region give Hugo a wide breadth because they know that poverty in the region is a never-ending problem and no one really knows how to solve it. With democratization in the region comes the power of voting, and people in dire straits will do what is best for their own personal lives…even if Chavez never shuts up and loses more tact in the future, people will vote for the person who will address their personal concerns in Latin America and in the next few elections throughout the Americas.

No one would like to tell Hugo Chavez “Por que no te calles!(Why don’t you shut up!)” more than President Uribe of Colombia, as King Juan Carlos of Spain did a few weeks ago. Today Chavez accused the very popular Colombian President of working with the United States to form an army to attack Venezuela. This comes as Condaleeza Rice visits Colombia in support of Uribe’s anti-drug war, anti-FARC war and pro-trade agenda with the US which hopes to pull Colombia out of the quagmire of poverty, conflict and kidnappings which has kept one of the most advanced countries in Latin America in conflict for more than four decades.

Hugo Chavez has had mixed blessing since his verbal embarrassment by the King of Spain. Firstly he lost in a referendum to increase his powers and give him an indefinite term of elected office as President in the Venezuelan Constitution. On a second more positive note, Chavez helped negotiate the release of Colombians Consuelo Gonzalez, a former Colombian Congresswoman and Clara Rojas from a 5 year abduction by FARC rebels. This helped form a media coup against Uribe government’s failure to have hostages released in his tough campaign against the FARC. While Chavez’s help was appreciated by the hostages and he is making efforts to have more of them freed and limit hostage takings in Colombia, he is also pushing Uribe to react to his criticisms of the Uribe government’s incredibly popular policies in Colombia. In reality, Chavez said openly that FARC should be recognized as a real political power as they have an army and control territory, which angered many in Colombia who do not believe that the release of Gonzalez and Rojas gives Chavez the right to interfere in their local affairs beyond his humanitarian involvement.

Chavez has taken the opportunity in the last few years as Latin America’s greatest oil producer to push his politics beyond Venezuela’s borders. His visits to Iran and oil aid to Cuba and Bolivia did not illicit a strong physical reaction by the United States to date as the war in Iraq and petrol problems in the rest of the world has made Latin America a low priority for the Bush Administration since the rise in petrol prices 2 years ago. During this time however, countries like Colombia have been dealing with Chavez in good economic times. In a FT.com article on Latin American economies, the recent downturn due to the US housing crisis may affect non-petrol economies in Latin America with greater pressure than any other region in the world. While countries such as Chile, Mexico and Brazil can most likely weather an economic downturn with some negative temporary effects, Venezuela and Ecuador’s petrol economies will likely make them stronger in the region, which means more verbal fodder from Hugo Chavez. Increased poverty in hard economic times never yields a positive result for any Latin American political leader, but for Uribe who is the man who’s destiny is linked with the fight against the FARC, the backseat criticisms from Chavez in Venezuela will likely become louder in the next year. The only saving grace for Uribe is that no one really takes Chavez seriously outside of Venezuela, so unless Colombia does react through coercion against Chavez the best response may just be to take a page from the book of King Juan Carlos of Spain.