Latin America

The definition of countries in poverty has needed to open up to a wider lexicon of terms in order to explain the various ways in which a country could be in poverty, and the stages in which it might be able to get out of it. In financial circles, the term BRIC, referring to Brazil, Russia, India and China have created their own investment category, known in common speak as “Emerging Economies”, places like Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia and Thailand have joined the BRICs as potential gold mines for investors, win or lose, it has been an exciting ride.

Since the 1990s, emerging economies have been seen as the instigators of global economic collapse as well as the drivers of future untold fortunes. Economic collapse often followed early regulatory changes in many of these countries. Reading like a villain in the latest Batman movie, The Asian Tigers, a collection of smaller Asian economies was hit by financial crisis in the late 1990s. Russia, Turkey, Brazil also collapsed since then on more than one occasion. Mexico was one of the first to collapse in 1993, complemented by Argentina as one of the last, which had a number of severe collapses, leading to a major one in 2001. All these economies seem to be doing relatively well now, especially larger ones like China and India, who this week were strong enough and had enough clout to stop the Doha Round of the WTO, based to a great degree on India’s disapproval of the agricultural limitations in the agreement, a source of income in which emerging economies often have as one of their staples of national revenue.

With India now being able to determine the course of future international trade treaties and China being seen by many as the next economic power and rightful host of the Olympics, what will countries like Russia and Brazil do to place themselves in such a position in the future? Russia, earning massive revenue from its oil reserves has spent the last twenty years trying to reassert itself amongst oligarchs and conflicts, economically and militarily. While Russia has had many opportunities in reality, cities like Moscow and St.Petersburg have taken much of the benefits and have left rural Russia in neglect. Much of the country’s wealth is only now being re-absorbed and stability in government reasserted while rights of protest have been curbed to a great degree. Recently, military exercises in the North Atlantic and with China have put NATO on alert, showing that which Russia might not become the next economic giant, it certainly wishes to be heard in some manner.

While large yearly GDP revenue is considered an economic miracle in most of the world, 9-15% GDP growth was often common in Latin America throughout the 90s, and resulted in spectacular economic collapse in Brazil, Argentina and throughout the region many times over through 2001. Brazil, with its former labour leader and President has not taken the populist approach to economics, adopting policies of centrists past Presidents to form a step-by-step approach to growth for the world’s next big emerging economy. With a slow and stable growth rate of 5%-6%, Brazil is moving slowly out of economic instability to become the next stable global economic power. While Brazil has a population of over 170 million people, the Brazilian economy is about the same size as Canada, which has a population of 32 million. Brazil, with its stable progressive growth rate and poverty reduction strategies spends much of its time acquiring an economic future while trying to reduce its poverty rate and reduce inequality in the process. Avoiding heavy IMF measures to slash inflation, and avoiding Chavez like populism in reducing poverty in exchange for its business class, Brazil may stand out as the model for Emerging Market development if high GDP rates in India and China cannot manage its plus 10%-15% GDP and the changes and attention it brings in the long run. While time will tell which development strategies are successful in the long run, it is evident that the BRICs of the world are all different and all successful in their own unique achievements.

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 31st, 2008 at 3:29 pm and is filed under Mexico, Brazil, Trade and Economy, Argentina, Finance and Financial Markets, Poverty and its Legacy, Economic Turmoil and ISI, East Asian Miracle and Stiglitz, China+Latin America=??, FTAA and Trade Agreements, European Union and Latin America, BRICs and Emerging Economies. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.