Latin America

In a friendly chat with interviewer Charlie Rose this past Thursday, Lord Peter Levene of Lloyd’s of London discussed how their company and the insurance industry advances on challenges facing the world economy and the unpredictable nature of doing business when the environment and political security are anything but certain.

Rose and Levene discussed many topics, especially those concerning the environment, with climate change, food and possibly water becoming the next scarce resource on a global scale. Problems which were of paramount concern to Mr. Levene came from the sharp rise in oil prices and the Sub Prime Mortgage crisis hurting commerce in the US and worldwide. His perspectives on oil were of interest, as he referred to the fact that since the 1970’s oil crisis, leaders in Iran; one of the world’s top oil producing nations, warned of possible issues arising from excessive use of oil. With oil being seen as a scarce resource 30 years ago, many provocative experts predicted that using oil to merely drive around in cars, as opposed to conserving this non-renewable resource would eventually lead to a major crisis. Levene pointed out that electric cars, which should have been produced since that time, are a wonderful alternative that has only recently become part of the dialogue and the lengua franca of product development and marketing. In a personal note he mentioned how his wife in London, who recently came into possession of a Smart Car was able to park anywhere, avoid London’s dreaded congestion tax and even get free parking in some areas due to the use of an environmentally friendly vehicle. While this is more likely due to policy than the benefits of the car itself, for many urban centres it will likely become the norm in the near future as the one profitable SUV’s become economic ball and chains for their manufacturers.

Another topic of discussion which was quite intriguing was the comparison of economies which were successes in the last few years as opposed to becoming part of the many economies struggling with current economic policy. Two nations which stood out were Ireland and Brazil, the former being pointed out for its innovative business tax policy which has siphoned investment from many other likely competitors into the Irish nation, and the latter for its reform of economic policies under the last two Brazilian Presidencies, resulting in a stable and progressive growth rate of 4% and institutional reforms that will likely repel any major currency crisis of the past and propel Brazil into the next major mega-economy like those of India and China, albeit more stable in the long run. In the end, there have been economic winners and losers in the last few years, but with new challenges and innovative members of the international community Levene suggested that with challenges comes the motivation for experts in their fields (not necessarily himself!) to produce solutions to crisis in the global community. A worth while discussion indeed. Please see the soon to be released video interview with Lord Peter Levene here.

Cuba has always been a unique case study on how a country can survive in a situation where survival and foreign policy go hand in hand, immediately affecting the lives of ordinary Cubans. While many countries have deep internal struggles in order to maintain political equilibrium among their population, Cuba has always had to deal with the largess of the US or USSR in their personal struggle to maintain their own country while not upsetting the balance of power in Cuba, the region and worldwide.

Historically, Cuba has done much to irritate the presence of the US in Latin America and support revolutionary movements abroad. While not taking the position of passive diplomacy, Fidel Castro often sent military support to Latin America and Africa, Central America in the 80’s while maintaining its economic position inside the Communist economies of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. At the same time, the lives of Cubans followed the social system and political repression that was brought by Fidel. With more than effective heath care also came a lack of freedoms, and when funds ran out after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cubans struggled and turned their towns into tourist resorts and sold their classic cultural icons to anyone from abroad who could pay for it.

Many outside of Cuba have been encouraged by the stepping down of Fidel Castro and the rise of Raul Castro as Cuba’s new leader. With Barak Obama suggesting open discussions with Raul and the encouragement from many in the EU and abroad for increased freedoms, a possible Cuban Perestroika is assumed by many with the recent sale of cellular phones in the island nation and today’s announcement of a pay scale being adopted for differing skills of workers in Cuba making headlines worldwide.

In the latest series of articles published online by The European Courier, FPA Blogger Rich Basas published his article: “The Future of Cuba” on June 12th 2008. The article discusses the new role of Cuba in a world where the US is becoming less dominant as suggested by Khanna and Zakaria and is forcing Cuba to form new relationships with the US, the EU and most importantly China. While Cuba’s past was always weighted against the political movement of the two main superpowers, Cuba, along with many middle nations now are being faced with the choice of where to place their alliances and create a prosperous future for Cuba and the Castros themselves. Cuba has always been overly influenced from abroad, and while the environment has changed, the strategy of balancing Cuba’s local interest with those of influences from abroad will likely not change as long as a Castro is in power. The only assurance is that while the game will not change, the way it is played will have a set of new rules, and new rulers.

In a few past events associated with the Foreign Policy Association, many organizations associated with the region brought Latin American ideas to New York and have seen the point of view of many of Latin America’s most innovative leaders addressing internal and external issues via the FPA and associated institutions:

Most recently Heraldo Munoz, the Chilean Ambassador to the UN gave a talk at Grupo Santander in New York regarding the release of his new book, A Solitary War: A Diplomat’s Chronicle of the Iraq War and its lessons. Munoz worked in the UN Security Council during the beginning of the Iraq war and under Kofi Annan’s term as UN Secretary General. His book details the difficulty in dealing with an increasingly independent US security policy and a UN that was facing many challenges in maintaining its role as a viable international institution among the inability to contain the world’s remaining superpower. A speech by Munoz was given at Grupo Santander to compliment the launch of his latest book. It can be found on the FPA website here.

The FPA’s Children Blog last week reported on the talk given by Alejandro Toledo, the former President of Peru in April of 2008. In his talk at the Americas Society, President Toledo spoke about Democracy and Populism in the political process in Latin America and how his role as one of the first indigenous leaders to be elected in a Latin American nation reflects the new populism now present in the political process of many nations in the region. With the constant problems of poverty and new democracies in Latin America, the votes of many of Latin America’s poor has created drastic political change within many countries such as Peru, Bolivia and Venezuela. Alejandro Toledo, the eventual successor to Peru’s indicted former President Fujimori was one of the first leaders to not only lead a quiet revolution against the controlling powers in his country, but also become one of the first indigenous leaders to come from a background of poverty and child labour, to lead his country as President. A video of the talk given by President Toledo can be seen on the FPA’s website here.

In two complimentary blogs on Alejandro Toledo’s talk, Cassandro Clifford of the FPA’s Children Blog posted on Alejandro Toledo’s personal history as a child labourer and how the issue affects many in poverty in Peru. In a second post, the issue surrounding child labour itself in Peru is detailed in a thoughtful and informative posting after the Toledo post. The posting about Toledo can be found here on the Children Blog, and the accompanying post can be found here. Thank you Cassandra for all your work.