The US War on Terror has left many great negative legacies in its wake. With troops mired in Iraq and Afghanistan and no clear idea of what constitutes victory in those conflicts, the results of the War on Terror has places US troops in constant danger, has alienated its once friendly supporting nations, and has taken time and energy away from the War on Drugs and Latin American as a whole.

Success has come in one form, but due to the skill of Colombia's leadership as opposed to that of Bush I's War on Drugs or Bush II's War on Terror. During the last 8 years of the War on Terror, Uribe's Colombia has had a great deal of progress. In contrast to the US in Iraq and in Afghanistan, accusations against Venezuela of drug running, and Mexican drug wars slowing killing off anyone who opposes it at will, Colombia has captured many FARC leaders including the infamous "Karina" this past week, one of FARC's top leaders and most violent assassins.

As a follow up to the capture of “Karina”,  the top leader of the FARC, Manuel Marulanda was confirmed as dead this past week. While Uribe claims his death as a result of an air strike, and the FARC as due to a heat condition, the timing of the FARC leader's death in conjunction with so many of its top leaders deserting, dying or simply losing the support of many FARC rebel soldiers has done nothing more but to push the FARC closer to becoming the final historic note in the longest rebel insurgency in Latin America's history. The death of so many FARC leader in 2008 could do nothing more but to push Uribe into becoming Colombia's Winston Churchill in the fight against internal terror in the jungles of the Andean nation.

Despite Uribe's success and over 70% support in Colombia, since 9/11 the US has alienated alot of the countries that traditionally supported it on the world stage. When a country like Colombia that has had more terrorism and economic hardships than any other US ally succeeds in the War on Terror and is rewarded with criticism when forming a trade agreement, it further moves the US away from a region that requires substantial and equitable support. It could be based on the lack of understanding in the US on Colombia, or perhaps a separation between trade, anti-drug enforcement and security policy, but it poorly reflects on the US with many of their neighbours worldwide. Trade is usually the issue where this takes place as seen with Clinton's attacks on NAFTA and its North American neighbours, but in this case the prime achievement of the War on Terror or whatever people wish to call it is Colombia's success against the FARC. With some of the highest rates of drug trafficking, internal refugees and poverty in the world, any progress by Uribe or leaders of Colombia must be included when creating a foreign policy towards Latin America.

On May 14th 2008 the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and the National Endowment of Democracy hosted the Secretary-General of the OAS, H.E. José Miguel Insulza in their offices in New York to discuss how the OAS is helping develop democracy and democratic institutions within modern Latin America. With the current state of affairs in Latin America, democracy in its true form is a strong contender in many Latin American nations. As the historical forum of discussion and voice for the states of Latin America, progress and diplomacy has always worked best with the assistance of the OAS and the Americas community in resolving issues in the region.

The future of Latin America is often seen in two perspectives. One is the US and its approach to other countries in the Americas. Many in the United States see Latin America as its proper sphere of influence. While many in Latin America would prefer an increasingly independent status, the reality of geopolitics is that for better or for worse, the United States has had a lot of power in determining the future of Latin America via economic relationships, political ties and support to groups and officials in various Latin American countries. The question now is based on how the US wants to approach the region in the future. With economic successes in Mexico and Brazil and Chile, and diplomatic challenges with Venezuela and Bolivia and a mix of both with every other country, the opportunity to reengage after five years in Iraq will determine how the US progresses in the future as a regional power or a source of conflict for many of its neighbours.

In his new book The Second World and in an interview with Edward Baker of Strategy+Business, Parag Khanna of the New America Foundation discusses how the future of geopolitics will likely take shape in the future. With power becoming divided among China, the US and the EU, many regions of influence which he refers to as the Second World will often become influenced by one of the three main powers. These middle powers have yet to determine which influence they wish to presume, but as Khanna points out the opportunity for influence comes only from those powers and their ability to coordinate their diplomacy in a productive fashion. As with Latin America and the OAS, the region is essentially available for diplomacy and will be the determining factor of future influence of the US in the near future. Isolationism and the fear of working within the international community will only hurt the US in the future. The OAS and Latin America is seen as the answer for many, as Edward Baker states: "The answer lies right under our noses."

 For Video of the May 14th discussion with the OAS click here.

For a Video Interview by Charlie Rose with Parag Khanna click here. 

For further discussion ofthe issue of US influence in the World, see The Washington Post article The Rise of Non-Americanism by Fareed Zakaria by clicking here. 

In the FPA's Mexico Blog, fellow bloggers Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Mike Coe have written a few intelligent and interesting posts on Mexico's recent Drug violence and how the US and Mexico have addressed the issues in a positive and negative manner.

In a May 19th posting by Mike Coe, the role of the US in addressing Mexico's drug violence is criticized. Beyond the US being the end market and focus for much of the drugs coming from Mexico, the illegal gun trade coming from the US plays a large part for arming many of the drug gangs in Mexico along with over $10 billion USD going to arm drug cartels and train new recruits from the US into Mexico according to the blogpost.

In a May 14th posting, Blogger Alejandro Quiroz Flores discusses the role of the Mexican military in combating Mexico's drug problems. In a move to avoid problems with Mexico's often corrupt and under-equipped local police forces, the Mexican Army is often the security force which patrols towns and maintains security against drug trafficking. Problems discussed by Alejandro include a problem of desertion in the Army due to poor condition and lack of pay. A contributing factor as well is the historic human right violation during the Dirty War in the 60's and 70's which contributed to 1,500 disaparecidos in the past. Despite the Army's separation from political forces and its good reputation as compared with the local police, they are still Mexico's strongest security force against the Drug cartels in Mexico and have greatly improved their human rights record since the 1970s. For Alejandro's piece on the attack on FARC leaders in Ecuador and consequences in Mexico and Ecuador, read here.

On May 13th, Mike Coe wrote a piece on where drugs in Mexico originate. Mike discusses how the killing of Mexican official Edgar Millan Gomez was done through a drug cartel from Sinaloa in response to Millan's arrest of a number of their members were arrested by Millan's agency. Mike has placed detailed maps of the regions which grow much of the Heroine and Marijuana grown and exported in Mexico. Please see the posting here. As well, please see his posting on the killing of Millan here.

Edgar Millan Gomez was one of the latest victim and symbol of how the anti-drug forces of the Mexican Government can be attacked whenever and wherever drug traffickers wish to bring the fight. Gomez was one of the top officials in Mexico's anti-drug war. He was considered one of the top security officials in Mexico and was one of the top people in charge of Mexico's security forces. On Thursday he was gunned down, along with two of his bodyguards in a professional killing in front of his home. On Friday the tradegy continued as Esteban Robles, the head of Mexico's anti-kidnapping agency was gunned down as well. Their importance was paramount as shown by the presence of Mexican President Felipe Calderon who attended to the issues and to their funerals soon after the killings.

The number of deaths in the Mexican "War on Drugs" has reached record proportions. In 2007 nearly 2,500 have been killed in conflicts connected with narcotrafficking, and in the first five months of 2008 that number has already reached 1,100. As a medium between narcotics coming in from Colombia through Mexico and into the United States, Mexico is considered as an untapped source of wealth for anyone who controls the illicit trade routes. This ever-lingering issue has shadowed all concerns of the Mexican Presidency as it affects immigration, security, trade and corruption in Mexico. Even when one of those key issues becomes a focal point of the political concerns of Mexico and its neighbours, behind the scenes the drug trade has found a way to overcome restrictions to sell the products that no one wants to discuss. This recent war in the streets has removed the silence on the issue and is forcing Calderon to deal with it in an open manner. Unfortunately Calderon is not controlling the media and security surrounding the issue, losing one of his top cops to a hail of bullets to the will of Mexico's drug gangs.

The fear of many in Mexico and abroad is that Mexico might become the next Colombia in Latin America. While the two countries are quite different politically and culturally, the reality is that an inability for the government to control crimes in its territory can lead a country into a state of constant emergency and repel growth and progress for years, or even generations. While Mexico has not reached this point, this latest killing was a clear message to the Government and Mexico as a whole that they can control not only smaller cities in the north of the country, but can hit anyone, anywhere, even Mexico's best warrior. The only positive elements of this scenario is that in Colombia there has been great progress on their war against the FARC and that has produced methods and successful approaches in dealing with narcotraffickers. We will have to wait to see if Calderon has the ability to create an effective and coordinated response to a drug war that can only get worse in the long run.

Video: Scene of Mexico shooting