Latin America

No one would like to tell Hugo Chavez “Por que no te calles!(Why don’t you shut up!)” more than President Uribe of Colombia, as King Juan Carlos of Spain did a few weeks ago. Today Chavez accused the very popular Colombian President of working with the United States to form an army to attack Venezuela. This comes as Condaleeza Rice visits Colombia in support of Uribe’s anti-drug war, anti-FARC war and pro-trade agenda with the US which hopes to pull Colombia out of the quagmire of poverty, conflict and kidnappings which has kept one of the most advanced countries in Latin America in conflict for more than four decades.

Hugo Chavez has had mixed blessing since his verbal embarrassment by the King of Spain. Firstly he lost in a referendum to increase his powers and give him an indefinite term of elected office as President in the Venezuelan Constitution. On a second more positive note, Chavez helped negotiate the release of Colombians Consuelo Gonzalez, a former Colombian Congresswoman and Clara Rojas from a 5 year abduction by FARC rebels. This helped form a media coup against Uribe government’s failure to have hostages released in his tough campaign against the FARC. While Chavez’s help was appreciated by the hostages and he is making efforts to have more of them freed and limit hostage takings in Colombia, he is also pushing Uribe to react to his criticisms of the Uribe government’s incredibly popular policies in Colombia. In reality, Chavez said openly that FARC should be recognized as a real political power as they have an army and control territory, which angered many in Colombia who do not believe that the release of Gonzalez and Rojas gives Chavez the right to interfere in their local affairs beyond his humanitarian involvement.

Chavez has taken the opportunity in the last few years as Latin America’s greatest oil producer to push his politics beyond Venezuela’s borders. His visits to Iran and oil aid to Cuba and Bolivia did not illicit a strong physical reaction by the United States to date as the war in Iraq and petrol problems in the rest of the world has made Latin America a low priority for the Bush Administration since the rise in petrol prices 2 years ago. During this time however, countries like Colombia have been dealing with Chavez in good economic times. In a FT.com article on Latin American economies, the recent downturn due to the US housing crisis may affect non-petrol economies in Latin America with greater pressure than any other region in the world. While countries such as Chile, Mexico and Brazil can most likely weather an economic downturn with some negative temporary effects, Venezuela and Ecuador’s petrol economies will likely make them stronger in the region, which means more verbal fodder from Hugo Chavez. Increased poverty in hard economic times never yields a positive result for any Latin American political leader, but for Uribe who is the man who’s destiny is linked with the fight against the FARC, the backseat criticisms from Chavez in Venezuela will likely become louder in the next year. The only saving grace for Uribe is that no one really takes Chavez seriously outside of Venezuela, so unless Colombia does react through coercion against Chavez the best response may just be to take a page from the book of King Juan Carlos of Spain.

In Mexico’s “Dirty War” between 1968 and 1971, more than 600 people were “disappeared” for their political convictions. While much progress has been made with disappeared people in Chile, Argentina and Uruguay since the 1970s and the fall of military dictatorships in those countries, there has not been the same level of attention on disappeared Mexicans within Mexico or the international community like there was with many countries in South America.

With the lack of a strong military government in Mexico and the nature of the intricate political system under the 80 years of PRI rule in the country, finding information about missing people in the process was only plausible after the loss of the PRI’s political hegemony in Mexico and the political will of the new PAN government over the last 7 years.

Jose Miguel Vivanco of Human Rights Watch in this link discusses the advances, or lack thereof, of the Special Prosecutor’s Office which was created under the Fox Administration to investigate the disappeared people during the 70’s in Mexico. Recently the office formally closed when the government published its agreement A/317/06 in the federal official newspaper. With the end of the investigation, not a single conviction was produced and only limited progress was made in uncovering the fate of hundreds of people who were “disappeared”.

In Argentina, Chile and Uruguay, while there have been many difficulties and conditions in prosecuting past disappearances and abuses, Vivanco suggests that: “Mexico must still find a way to meet its obligation to investigate and prosecute these cases.” While prosecutions have never been an easy task in any country, progression has come with new democratic governments in those countries most greatly affected by “disappeared” in the 1970s. With the election of another PAN government in Mexico, there must be some reconciliation in Mexico for the 600 missing people.

Rapid double digit economic growth in China and its newly minted membership in the WTO has greatly changed the world economy and China’s position as an economic and political power. This view, while prominent within China is more importantly the dominant view among its neighbors abroad. Much of the trade between China and economic powerhouses such as the US and EU have grown exponentially in the last 7 years, so much so that US debt is owed principally to China equaling a third of all US foreign debt and much of the US manufacturing base moving to China for low labour costs in the process.

Fears of losing American jobs have traditionally been the focus of political debate in the US due to the small economic boom in Mexico which formed after the Peso Crisis in the early 1990s. The move of many multinational companies to the southern side of Mexican border to manufacture products from A-Zto be reshipped back into the US at low labour costs has been the cause for much of the anguish of local US labour unions over the last 12 years of NAFTA. While low cost goods have come across the border to American consumers, it also provided much of the employment base for Mexican manufacturing in Mexico and was a strong engine for the Mexican economy throughout the 1990s until today.

With the emergence of China however as the principle manufacturer of the world’s goods in recent years and China’s emergence as the world’s largest economy in the next few years, Mexico has slowly realized that it is being replaced as the principle low cost manufacturer of goods to North America. The realization that Mexico may lose one of its principle engines of its economy to China has lead to more involved policy towards China. A push for a bilateral investment agreement took shape in March 2007 and will be worked out further this June. The hope for Mexico is that a bilateral investment agreement will take shape before the end of 2007 and help reinstall Mexico as a leading trade partner with China and the US. Further relations have taken shape as well, with the two main Unions in China and Mexico in a personnel and information exchange agreed to this month and future commercial deals taking shape as well.

It is uncertain where Mexico will be placed in the future economy, but as one of the leading nations regarding trade agreements abroad, Mexico will use any advantage it has to maintain recent success in the Mexican economy past its early NAFTA years.